Crypto/Macroeconomic News Highlights
- Federal Reserve Rate Decision: The Fed is expected to announce a 75-basis-point rate hike on Thursday (7/28).
- US Q2 GDP Data: Preliminary indicators suggest a possible technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), signaling a potential economic downturn.
Additional market-moving factors:
- Corporate Earnings Reports: Weak Q2 results from advertising-dependent firms (e.g., Snap) and major retailers suggest worsening economic conditions.
- Fed Policy Dilemma: Traders await confirmation whether the central bank will prioritize inflation control despite recession signals.
Why Blockchain Still Matters During the Bear Market
The Current Reality of Crypto: A Speculative Trading Arena
Bear markets provide clarity - during bull runs, criticisms like "you're just traditional finance folks" or "you don't understand decentralization's potential" often drown out sober analysis. Here's why "speculative" isn't necessarily derogatory:
Definition: Speculative assets lack near-term cash flow to justify their valuations. Examples include:
- Chinese real estate (sustained by government intervention)
- Most DeFi/GameFi projects (revenue models unsustainable, especially in downturns)
Key Problems:
- Projects attract primarily profit-seekers rather than users
- Minimal real-world utility creation
- Financial disclosures often absent or unfavorable
Long-Term Blockchain Value Propositions
Despite current limitations, blockchain technology maintains compelling narratives:
Value Proposition #1: Hedge Against Monetary Policy Risks
Bitcoin's Core Appeal: While BTC itself isn't inflation-proof, its foundational philosophy responds to legitimate concerns:
- Governments struggle with inflation control (2022's supply-driven crisis)
- Loose monetary policies often benefit capital holders over wage earners
- Growing distrust in centralized monetary systems fuels demand for alternatives
Value Proposition #2: Open Financial Infrastructure
Blockchain addresses traditional finance pain points:
✅ Faster cross-border settlements
✅ Greater financial inclusion
✅ Reduced intermediary dependencies
Regulation Balance: Future success requires appropriate oversight while preserving open-source composability that enables innovation.
Price Overview: July 18-24
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Opening Price | $20,780 |
| Weekly High | $24,300 (7/20) |
| Closing Price | $22,588 (+8% WoW) |
Note: This marks Bitcoin's largest single-week gain in 17 weeks. While encouraging, this report analyzes past performance only - not investment advice.
On-Chain Analytics
Whale Wallet Movements
🔍 Key Findings:
- Addresses holding 1K-10K BTC: Continued supply decline
- 10K-100K BTC wallets: Rapid accumulation then distribution
- 100K+ BTC wallets: Volatile movements
Interpretation: Last week's price action was driven primarily by whale-tier players testing market liquidity - a common late-bear-market behavior.
Realized Price & Holder Costs
📊 Critical Levels:
- Realized price: $21,851 (briefly surpassed)
- Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost: ~$22,320
- Short-Term Holder (STH) cost: ~$28,660
These levels will likely serve as future resistance/support zones.
90-Day Destroyed Coin Days
📉 Market Momentum Gauge:
Prolonged bottom-level readings indicate:
- Decreasing coin movement
- Strengthening holder conviction
- Historically safe DCA conditions
Futures Leverage Ratio
⚖️ Current State:
- Elevated leverage persists
- Contributes to amplified volatility
- Creates potential for short squeezes
👉 Why leverage matters in crypto markets
FAQs
Q: Does Bitcoin's 8% weekly gain mean the bear market is ending?
A: While encouraging, single-week moves require confirmation. On-chain data suggests we're likely in mid-to-late bear stages.
Q: What's the most reliable bottom indicator?
A: No single metric predicts bottoms perfectly, but the combination of realized price tests, low exchange balances, and suppressed leverage ratios helps identify accumulation zones.
Q: Should I buy altcoins now?
A: Bitcoin dominance trends suggest BTC outperforms altcoins during late bear/early bull transitions.
👉 Essential bear market survival strategies
Final Thoughts: The market shows classic late-bear characteristics - volatility coexists with strengthening fundamentals. As always, disciplined accumulation beats emotional trading.