Bitcoin's Resilience Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Over the weekend, the Middle East teetered on the edge of a major conflict as Iran launched hundreds of missiles against Israel, met by the latter’s "Arrow" defense system. The clash consumed military equipment worth approximately 9,400 BTC (calculated at conflict-period prices), sending global panic indices soaring. Bitcoin briefly dipped to 716,000 CNY (~$98,000) before rebounding within 48 hours following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.
The crypto market quickly regained its footing, with Bitcoin demonstrating remarkable resilience. It reclaimed lost ground and stabilized above the critical support level of 756,000 CNY ($103,600). According to CryptoQuant, this price point represents not just technical support but also a psychological defense line for bulls: "Holding this level signifies an unshaken foundation for the bull market."
Key Market Indicators
- Historically Healthy Correction: Since the bull market began in November 2022, Bitcoin has experienced only two major corrections exceeding 30% (August 2024 and April 2025), both followed by new all-time highs. The current weekly correction stands at just -7%, far below crash thresholds.
- Exchange Reserves Dwindling: Binance’s monthly Bitcoin net inflows have plummeted to 5,700 BTC, less than half the four-year average (12,000 BTC) and down 71.5% from the March 2025 peak (20,000 BTC).
- Negative Funding Rates Signal Opportunity: Despite the price recovery, Binance’s Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate dropped to -0.0033%, indicating bearish speculation. Historically, such scenarios (e.g., September 2024) led to 40% monthly surges as shorts were liquidated.
👉 Why Negative Funding Rates Fuel Bull Runs
U.S. Policy Catalyst: Mortgage Market Embraces Bitcoin
While Asian investors assessed Middle East tensions, North America dropped a policy bombshell. On June 25, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) mandated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must now include Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as qualified mortgage reserve assets.
Policy Highlights
- Borrowers can use Bitcoin holdings (via regulated exchanges like Coinbase) as loan collateral without converting to fiat.
- Volatility hedging mechanisms and dedicated crypto reserves required.
- Paves the way for institutional Bitcoin adoption, unlocking trillions in mortgage market liquidity.
FHFA Director Willian J. Pulte hailed this as a historic step toward realizing former President Trump’s vision of making the U.S. "the global crypto capital."
Technical Outlook: Bitcoin Nears Critical Breakout
- Current Price: 770,000–778,000 CNY (consolidating strongly).
- Moving Averages: Price sustains above 50-period (~769,000 CNY) and 100-period (~768,000 CNY) averages on the 12-hour chart.
- Key Resistance: $109,300 (~797,000 CNY)—breaking this April 2025 high could trigger a parabolic rally.
- Volatility Squeeze: After 9 weeks of compression, Bitcoin mirrors its December 2024 breakout, which preceded an 80% surge.
"The market is at a tipping point," a量化 fund CEO revealed. "With Middle East risks fading, U.S. policy tailwinds, and technical alignment, a million-CNY Bitcoin this summer is plausible."
Altcoins Show Early Bullish Signals
As Bitcoin charges forward, altcoins hint at their next moves:
- XRP: Weekly breakout from a descending triangle; Ichimoku cloud turns bullish, targeting 26.3 CNY ($3.61).
- Ethereum: Battling at the 17,520 CNY ($2,400)**扩音器 pattern neckline—a breach could propel it toward **22,260 CNY ($3,050).
👉 How Tether’s $10B Mining Bet Shapes Crypto’s Future
FAQ
Q: Why did Bitcoin rebound so quickly after the Middle East conflict?
A: The ceasefire reduced "crisis premiums," while strong support at 756,000 CNY restored confidence.
Q: How does FHFA’s policy impact Bitcoin?
A: It legitimizes Bitcoin in traditional finance, potentially funneling trillions from mortgage markets into crypto.
Q: What’s the significance of negative funding rates?
A: They indicate excessive bearish bets, often preceding violent short squeezes (e.g., +40% in September 2024).
Q: Are altcoins about to rally?
A: XRP and ETH show promising technical setups, but Bitcoin’s dominance may delay a full alt-season.
Final Thought: Bitcoin at 770,000 CNY isn’t the peak—it’s the gateway to a redefined monetary system where geopolitical shocks and policy shifts accelerate global adoption. The bull market’s foundation grows stronger, leaving bears scrambling.