Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $103,647 on December 5, marking a new all-time high.
- The price has since retreated, falling below the $100,000 psychological threshold.
- Analysts debate whether this signals a short-term correction or a prolonged bearish phase.
Current Market Dynamics
As of December 9, Bitcoin traded at a low of $98,131, reflecting a 5.6% drop from its peak. Despite prevailing market optimism, technical indicators suggest caution:
- Bearish Engulfing Candlestick: Signals potential downward momentum.
- RSI Divergence & MACD Cross: The Relative Strength Index shows bearish divergence, while the MACD indicates weakening upward traction.
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Short-Term Projections
Support Levels:
- Immediate minor support at $99,300.
- Channel support at $96,700**; a breakdown could push BTC toward **$92,500 (parabolic trend line).
Resistance Targets:
- A breakout above $100K may reignite bullish momentum, with **$114,000** as the next key milestone.
Wave Count Analysis
Bullish Scenario
- Elliott Wave Theory suggests Bitcoin is in sub-wave five of a larger upward trend, potentially peaking near $113,700–$114,400.
- Post-rally, expect a corrective phase before further gains.
Bearish Alternative
- A short-term dip to $92,500 is plausible, followed by a resumption of the uptrend.
FAQs
Q: Is Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend still intact?
A: Yes, despite short-term volatility, the parabolic support trend line indicates sustained bullish momentum.
Q: What drives the current price decline?
A: Profit-taking after ATH, combined with bearish technical signals like RSI divergence.
Q: When might BTC rebound?
A: A confirmed hold above $96,700 or a breakout past $100K could trigger upward movement.
Strategic Insights
- Monitor the ascending parallel channel (6-hour chart) for breakout/breakdown signals.
- Critical juncture: A close below $92,500 would invalidate the bullish wave count.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on key support/resistance levels. While short-term bearish pressure exists, the path to $114K remains viable. Traders should watch for confirmation of trend reversals and align strategies accordingly.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks; conduct independent research or consult a professional before trading.
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