Over the past three days, Ethereum's price has retreated as traders adjust their positions ahead of June—historically its worst-performing month.
Ethereum (ETH) declined for three consecutive days, dropping to $2,500, a 9.8% pullback from its monthly high. Despite the correction, it has outperformed most altcoins, many of which saw declines exceeding 15% from their peaks this month.
Why June Is a Critical Month for Ethereum
Coinglass data reveals that June has been Ethereum’s weakest month since 2016, with an average monthly return of -7.4% and a median return of -8.68%. Seasonal trends suggest summer often brings reduced trading activity, contributing to this underperformance.
Bitcoin (BTC) also struggles in June, posting its second-worst monthly performance after September, with an average return of just 0.35%.
However, seasonal patterns aren’t foolproof. For instance, ETH defied expectations in March 2024 by dropping 18%, breaking a four-year streak of gains. Similarly, February 2024 saw a 31% decline after six consecutive years of positive growth.
Bullish Fundamentals Amid the Dip
Despite June’s bearish reputation, Ethereum’s fundamentals remain strong:
- Undervaluation Signals: The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) has dipped to -0.074, indicating ETH is undervalued (readings below 1 typically suggest a buying opportunity).
- Whale Accumulation: Large holders increased their ETH holdings to 103.5 million coins, up from 103.45 million earlier this week—a bullish sign.
- Institutional Demand: Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen consistent inflows, surpassing $3 billion in cumulative investments over the past 10 days.
👉 Why Ethereum Whales Are Buying the Dip
Technical Analysis: ETH Price Outlook
The daily chart shows ETH rebounding from a low of $1,385 on April 9 to its current $2,530, forming a bullish flag pattern and reclaiming the 50-day moving average.
A "cup and handle" pattern has also emerged, with a 50% retracement depth suggesting a potential long-term target of $4,185.
Key Takeaways:
- June historically pressures ETH and BTC prices.
- Strong on-chain metrics and institutional demand may counter seasonal trends.
- Technical patterns hint at a potential breakout if bullish momentum sustains.
FAQs
Why does Ethereum perform poorly in June?
Summer typically reduces trading activity, leading to lower liquidity and weaker price action. Historical data shows June has been ETH’s worst month since 2016.
Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?
With the MVRV ratio signaling undervaluation and whales accumulating, dip-buying opportunities may exist. However, monitor broader market sentiment.
What’s the outlook for Ethereum ETFs?
Spot ETH ETFs continue attracting institutional capital, with over $3 billion in inflows—a positive indicator for long-term demand.
👉 Ethereum ETF Trends Explained
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.