Bitcoin's price trajectory hinges on liquidity support and a clear decoupling from stock market trends.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin price declined alongside U.S. Treasury yields, signaling a shift toward safer assets.
- A $4.28 billion Bitcoin purchase by Strategy Inc. and strong equity performance helped BTC stay above $90K.
- To sustainably breach $100K, Bitcoin needs stronger liquidity signals and independence from stock correlations.
Market Dynamics: Safety Demand vs. Crypto Volatility
On April 28, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp $2,000 correction to $93,500, mirroring the downward movement in Treasury yields. This synchronization reveals traders' preference for stable assets during market uncertainty.
While Bitcoin gained 6% over the past week, its inability to consolidate above $95,000 reflects persistent macroeconomic concerns. The 15-minute chart below illustrates how BTC's price movement correlates with 5-year Treasury yield fluctuations:
| Indicator | Movement | Bitcoin Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Treasury Yields | ↓ 2.8% | ↓ $2,000 |
| Russell 2000 | ↑ 1.2% | ↔ Neutral |
Macro Triggers: Trade Policies and Earnings
China's tariff reduction on U.S. semiconductors initially boosted market optimism. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments about trade responsibility reversed sentiment, demonstrating Bitcoin's sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
👉 Why institutional investors still favor Bitcoin during volatility
The Decoupling Debate
Three critical factors prevent Bitcoin from achieving true safe-haven status:
- Stock Market Correlation: 78% synchronicity with NASDAQ over 30 days
- Liquidity Dependence: Strategy's purchases account for 62% of recent volume
- Macro Sensitivity: Reacts to 92% of major economic data releases
FAQ: Addressing Investor Concerns
Q: Can Bitcoin maintain its value if Strategy stops buying?
A: The market would need equivalent institutional demand (~$300M/day) to offset potential outflows.
Q: What would trigger a sustainable move above $100K?
A: Requires either: (a) Fed rate cuts, or (b) ETF inflows exceeding $500M/week for 6+ weeks.
Q: How reliable are current support levels?
A: The $90K-$92K zone represents strong institutional accumulation, but macroeconomic shocks could test it.
Path Forward: Liquidity Signals Matter Most
For Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in 2025, traders should monitor:
- Central Bank Policies: Particularly Fed balance sheet changes
- Institutional Flows: ETF/Strategy purchase ratios
- Technical Indicators: 200-week moving average ($88K) as ultimate support
👉 Expert analysis: When will Bitcoin achieve true decoupling?
The coming weeks will test whether Bitcoin can transform from a risk-on asset to a genuine macroeconomic hedge. Market participants should prepare for continued volatility while watching for definitive liquidity signals.