The autonomous delivery vehicle industry has undergone a fierce price war in recent years, with costs plummeting from millions to tens of thousands of yuan. Industry experts attribute this price drop to companies scaling up production to lower prices and rapid technological advancements. While the sector holds immense potential, challenges such as road rights, safety, and operational costs remain unresolved.
The Price Evolution of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles
- 2018: Endpoint delivery vehicles cost ~¥1 million including service fees.
- 2019–2021: Prices dropped to ¥200,000–300,000.
- 2022: Haomo’s "Xiaomo Tuo 2.0" slashed prices to ¥129,000, later under ¥90,000.
- 2024: Jiushi’s Z2 priced at ¥39,800; Neolix X3 at ¥40,000.
- 2025: Record lows with Jiushi’s E6 at ¥19,800 and Cainiao’s GTLite at ¥16,800.
👉 Discover how autonomous vehicles are reshaping logistics
Case Study: Cost Savings in Action
Yunnan Courier Hub Owner Zhao Zaixin
- Investment: Purchased 3 Jiushi E6 vehicles (¥19,800 each).
- Monthly Cost: ¥2,130 (including FSD service fees).
- Savings: Replaces 4 employees (¥5,000/month each), cutting ¥18,000 monthly.
- Efficiency: Urban delivery costs dropped 40% (from ¥0.17 to ¥0.10 per parcel).
Challenges:
- Road Rights: Lack of clear regulations outside major cities like Kunming.
- Adaptation: Vehicles struggled in extreme conditions (e.g., rural mud paths during storms).
Key Drivers of Price Reduction
Technology: Shift from expensive LiDAR to cost-efficient "vision-first" systems.
- LiDAR prices fell 74% (¥10,000 → ¥2,600).
- Battery costs dropped 68% over 8 years.
- Scale: Factories like Neolix achieve 10-minute production cycles; Jiushi targets 10,000 annual units.
Industry Landscape
- Startups: Jiushi, Neolix, and Bai Rhinoceros raised ¥30B+ in 2025.
- Corporate Backing: JD.com, Meituan, and SF Express invest heavily.
- Competition: Brands tied to major couriers (e.g., Cainiao-Alibaba) lead in adoption.
FAQs
Q: How soon will autonomous delivery vehicles dominate the market?
A: Experts predict 2–3 years pending resolution of road rights and safety integration.
Q: What’s the ROI for small courier hubs?
A: Hubs report 40%+ cost cuts within months, breakeven in <1 year.
Q: Which regions are most receptive?
A: Urban centers like Kunming with clear regulations; rural adoption lags.
👉 Explore the future of last-mile delivery
The Road Ahead
Despite progress, hurdles remain:
- Standardization: Nationwide road rights frameworks.
- Safety: AI must handle unpredictable scenarios (e.g., extreme weather).
- Integration: Seamless collaboration with existing courier networks.
Expert Insight:
"The industry is on the cusp of explosion—expect 2–3 IPO-ready firms soon."
— Zhao Xiaomin, Logistics Analyst
With 1,937B parcels delivered in 2024 and last-mile costs accounting for 60% of logistics expenses, autonomous vehicles promise transformative savings. The race is on to perfect the technology—and the business model.