Bitcoin's recent pullback after hitting its all-time high of $108,000 last month has sparked intense debate among investors about whether the bull market is approaching its final phase. Digital asset research firm 10x Research recently issued a cautious analysis, highlighting emerging "top signals" that suggest investors should prepare for increased market volatility.
Has Bitcoin Peaked? Critical Market Warning Signs Emerge
Markus Thielen, CEO and Head of Research at 10x Research, noted in the report that while Bitcoin demonstrated strong upward momentum throughout 2024, December's price action revealed a concerning "shooting star" candlestick pattern—a bearish reversal indicator often seen during late-stage bull markets.
Historically, Bitcoin displayed similar "shooting star" patterns in December 2017 and November 2021, both preceding major market reversals after reaching previous all-time highs. Thielen emphasized:
The "shooting star" formation is a powerful bearish reversal signal indicating weakening buying pressure and potential price correction.
10x Research identified $90,000–$92,000 as Bitcoin's critical support zone. A breakdown below this range could trigger steeper declines. Thielen added:
While political events like Trump's inauguration might spur a January 2025 rebound, we could see another profit-taking wave by month's end. If this occurs, it would confirm the December 2024 "shooting star" likely marked Bitcoin's intermediate-term peak.
Despite these technical warnings, 10x Research clarified that this doesn't necessarily signal the bull market's end, but anticipates intensified volatility featuring "sharp rallies and corrections" throughout 2025.
Bull Market "80% Complete"? The Final Phase Could Be Dramatic
Other analysts present diverging perspectives on the current market stage.
Crypto Birb, founder of trading education community The Birb Nest, estimates Bitcoin's bull run is approximately 80% complete:
Bitcoin will surpass $225,000 by June 2025. We've completed 80% of this bull cycle—the remaining 20% will be the most volatile and dramatic phase.
The analyst cautioned investors to secure profits strategically, noting that the true "altcoin season" typically begins after Bitcoin peaks, but advised complete market exit before late 2025 to avoid an anticipated 80–90% bear market collapse in 2026.
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Analyst Tutor characterizes current conditions as Bitcoin's "final bull market movement":
Bitcoin is experiencing its third consecutive annual rally—historically indicative of a bull market's concluding stage.
The 2025 challenge lies in choosing between emotional decisions (believing Bitcoin will reach $1 million amid hype) versus rational exits based on technical indicators.
Tutor warned: "Greed and FOMO may cloud judgment, but history rewards those who remain disciplined, prepared, and emotionally detached."
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Monitor the $90,000–$92,000 support zone for potential trend confirmation
- Prepare for increased volatility with strategic exit plans
- Altcoin opportunities may emerge post-Bitcoin peak, but require precise timing
- Historical patterns suggest 2026 could initiate a severe bear market
👉 Learn how top traders identify market turning points
FAQ Section
Q: How reliable are "shooting star" patterns in predicting Bitcoin tops?
A: While not infallible, they've accurately preceded major reversals in 2017 and 2021 when combined with other indicators like weakening volume.
Q: Should investors sell all Bitcoin positions if it breaks $90,000?
A: Not necessarily—consider scaling out gradually and maintaining a core position, as bull markets often see multiple 20–30% corrections before final peaks.
Q: What's the safest strategy for altcoin investments during this phase?
A: Focus on projects with strong fundamentals, and always set stop-losses. Allocate only risk capital you can afford to lose completely.
Q: How long do typical Bitcoin bull markets last?
A: Historically 12–18 months from bear market bottom to peak, but each cycle varies based on macroeconomic conditions and adoption metrics.
Q: Are there any positive indicators that could extend the bull run?
A: Yes—institutional adoption milestones, ETF inflows surpassing expectations, or unexpected macroeconomic shifts could prolong the cycle.
Disclaimer: This content provides market information only. All viewpoints serve as reference material, not investment advice. Investors must make independent decisions—the author assumes no responsibility for direct/indirect losses resulting from trading activities.